(last updated 10/12/24, 9:35 pm)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2024 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 5A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Williamson (5-0) – HIGH
2. Vigor (5-0) – HIGH
3. Citronelle (3-2) – LOW
4. UMS-Wright (2-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: BC Rain (2-3), LeFlore (2-3)

Vigor and Williamson face off this week to determine first place. Citronelle beat BC Rain AND UMS-Wright who also beat BC Rain.

LeFlore is still alive with both Citronelle and Williamson on their schedule, but that’s a tall mountain to climb.

1. Montgomery Catholic (4-0) – HIGH
2. Charles Henderson (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. Andalusia (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Eufaula (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Montgomery Catholic has already taken down Eufaula and Charles Henderson and only needs to beat Andalusia to win the region. Henderson already beat Andalusia.

Greenville is at 2-3 and can enter into a tie if they beat Montgomery Catholic this week, but they already have a head-to-head loss to all the teams they could tie with, so they can’t sneak in.

1. Demopolis (4-0) – MEDIUM
2. Shelby County (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Northside (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Selma (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Sipsey Valley (1-3)

Demopolis and Northside face off on October 25 while Shelby County has already beaten Northside and lost to Demopolis. Sipsey Valley and Selma have to also play October 25. So if Selma falls to Shelby County and Sipsey Valley beats Montevallo (0-4) then they will play for fourth.

1. Central-Clay County (5-0) – HIGH
2. Beauregard (4-0) – HIGH
3. Elmore County (2-2) – MEDIUM
4. Valley (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Holtville (1-3)

Central-Clay County and Beauregard face off this week while Valley and Beauregard face off October 25.

Elmore County already beat Holtville and Valley, and Valley and Holtville play this week.

1. Corner (3-1) – LOW
2. Wenonah (3-1) – LOW
3. Carver-Birmingham (3-1) – LOW
4. Ramsay (3-1) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Briarwood (2-3)

This region will be interesting. Corner defeated Ramsay, but lost to Briarwood which could set up an interesting finish to the season. Briarwood is 2-3 and only have Hayden (0-4) left.

Although Corner lost to Briarwood, they have defeated Ramsay and Wenonah. They face Carver on October 25.

Ramsay still has to face Carver this week and Wenonah next week.

This could still go a number of ways with all five teams involved.

1. Moody (4-0) – HIGH
2. Leeds (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Center Point (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Jacksonville (2-3) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Moody only has to beat Springville (1-3) or winless Lincoln to lock up the region title. Leeds and Center Point play this week to determine second.

If Jacksonville beats St. Clair County (1-3) this week, then they will lock up fourth. Even if Springville (1-3) were able to beat both Moody and Center Point, Jacksonville has the head-to-head over them.

1. Fairview (5-0) – LOCKED
2. Russellville (3-1) – HIGH
3. Ardmore (2-2) – LOW
4. Lawrence County (2-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: West Point (2-2)

Fairview has officially locked up the region title.

If Russellville defeats West Point this weekend, they will lock up second. Ardmore and West Point play next week, so a Russellville loss wouldn’t necessarily knock West Point out.

Ardmore defeated Lawrence County last week to move ahead to third for now, but still have work to do.

1. Guntersville (4-0) – MEDIUM
2. Scottsboro (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Arab (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Boaz (3-1) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

The four teams are set, it’s just how they will finish.

Guntersville and Boaz play this week, Guntersville has already beaten Scottsboro and Arab. If Guntersville wins this week, they win the region.

Scottsboro and Arab play this week and Scottsboro will lock up second with a win. Arab and Boaz play next week. So there could still be a lot of different finishes.