(last updated 4/20/26, 10:46 am)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2026 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

I started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. I thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) current region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinions and projections. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– There have recently been some different interpretations of wording in the rule book when it comes to tiebreakers between schools and the AHSAA. We can only go off how we interpret the words that are written and past precedent in similar scenarios. We may get something wrong based on our interpretation, and if so – don’t forget that the AHSAA has the final word and whatever they say goes, whether we like it or not.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3. Current region records are listed on the breakdown of each region.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 5A as of right now:

*Teams in RED are locked into the bracket

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only and represent the team’s 2025 region record)

Region 1

1. Saraland (8-0)
2. Theodore (7-1)
3. Gulf Shores (5-3)
4. Spanish Fort (3-5)

Others that could grab a spot: None

Saraland should have a good chance again this year, and with St. Paul’s and McGill-Toolen both removed as private schools, Spanish Fort should be the favorite to be the fourth playoff team.

Region 2

1. Pike Road (6-0)
2. Benjamin Russell (6-0)
3. Russell County (5-1)
4. Stanhope Elmore (4-2)

Others that could grab a spot: Wetumpka (3-3)

Benjamin Russell and Pike Road didn’t get a chance to square off last year as both were eliminated by Saraland by multiple scores in the playoffs. With Homewood and Mountain Brook shifting into the Shelby County region, Benjamin Russell shifts over to the Montgomery region.

There could be a big battle for fourth here, you definitely can’t count Wetumpka out.

Region 3

1. Hillcrest-Tuscaloosa (3-4)
2. Hueytown (5-1)
3. Bessemer City (5-1)
4. McAdory (4-2)

Others that could grab a spot: Central-Tuscaloosa (4-2), Northridge (2-4)

This was region 4 the last few years, but represents the Tuscaloosa/Bessemer area. Hillcrest comes in after two years in 7A Region 3 where they steadily improved, but couldn’t quite break through as a playoff team (although they would have been in the new format).

Region 4

1. Mountain Brook (4-2)
2. Homewood (6-0)
3. Helena (4-2)
4. Pelham (3-3)

Others that could grab a spot: Ramsay (5-1), Chelsea (2-4)

This region drops Benjamin Russell to region 2 and loses Spain Park to 7A. Incoming is Homewood, Mountain Brook and Ramsay – three playoff teams who went a combined 15-3 in region play last year. Mountain Brook defeated Homewood in the regular season last year on one of the craziest plays all year, so we have them first, and Homewood second. Helena and Pelham are steadily improving and can compete with them as well.

Chelsea, under new head coach Tad Niblett, should be improved as well to potentially grab a spot.

Region 5

1. Parker (5-1)
2. Jasper (4-2 )
3. Mortimer Jordan (3-3)
4. Cullman (2-4)

Others that could grab a spot: Jackson-Olin (3-3), Minor (2-4)

With Homewood out, Parker should be the clear favorite in this region. Jasper comes in after a great season last year. Mortimer Jordan and Jackson-Olin both limped into the playoffs in a fairly weak region and finished the season 4-7. Cullman could make a move for a playoff spot as could Minor.

Region 6

1. Clay-Chalkville (6-0)
2. Pell City (4-2)
3. Oxford (4-2)
4. Pinson Valley (2-4)

Others that could grab a spot: St. Clair County (5-1)

Until Clay loses, they are going to be in that #1 spot. Sure, Pell City has spent a ton of money, hired all the best people and every athlete in the world has transferred there, but we’ll just shift them to second without Mountain Brook around.

The question will be who gets that final spot. Pinson is the next team up, but St. Clair County had a great season in 5A last year and will try to challenge for it.

Region 7

1. Muscle Shoals (6-0)
2. Hartselle (5-1)
3. Austin (5-2)
4. Florence (5-2)

Others that could grab a spot: Russellville (5-1), Athens (3-3)

This region could get a little crazy. You already have Muscle Shoals and Hartselle who have been two of the best teams in this classification the last couple of years, then you add two 7A playoff teams with Austin and Florence, plus one of the better north Alabama 5A teams with Russellville. Add Athens, who has been a playoff team) and you’ve got six teams fighting for four spaces.

Region 8

1. Fort Payne (6-0)
2. Boaz (4-2)
3. Arab (3-3)
4. Mae Jemison (2-4)