(last updated 10/12/24, 10:32 am)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2024 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– when it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 6A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Saraland (6-0) – HIGH
2. Spanish Fort (5-1) – MEDIUM
3. St. Paul’s (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Gulf Shores (2-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: McGill-Toolen (3-2), Theodore (2-3)

This is one of those 9-team regions that will actually have to play through the final week to determine the order. Saraland only needs to beat winless Murphy this week to lock up the region title. St. Paul’s and McGill-Toolen play this week in an important match-up. Gulf Shores has already beaten McGill-Toolen and all three of their losses are to the three teams above them. If Gulf Shores beats Theodore this week, they will likely be the fourth seed. If Theodore wins, then it opens up a potential tie for that final spot depending on what all happens over the next three weeks.

Spanish Fort and St. Paul’s play the final week and it could come down to that for the other home spot.

1. Pike Road (5-0) – HIGH
2. Russell County (4-0) – HIGH
3. Wetumpka (2-2) – LOW
4. Percy Julian (2-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Stanhope Elmore (1-3)

Pike Road and Russell County play this week for the region title. They are the top two teams regardless in this region.

Wetumpka beat Percy Julian which moves them to third. Wetumpka and Stanhope Elmore play on October 25. Percy Julian only has winless Park Crossing left. If Stanhope beat Rehobeth this week and Wetumpka beats Park Crossing, then it will set up that final game between Wetumpka/Stanhope to determine the seeding.

1. Spain Park (4-0) – HIGH
2. Chelsea (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. Helena (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Benjamin Russell (2-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Calera (2-2)

Spain Park only needs to win one of their next two against Calera or Chilton County to lock up the region title.

Chelsea and Helena play this week for second and a home game in the playoffs. Chelsea also still has to face Benjamin Russell on October 25.

Calera is technically in a tie for fourth right now, but has to either beat Spain and Helena AND hope for Benjamin Russell to end up with a worse record (BR has Pelham and Chelsea left). We don’t project Calera getting in, but they are still alive.

1. Hueytown (4-0) – HIGH
2. McAdory (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. Bessemer City (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Northridge (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Hueytown only needs to beat winless Brookwood this week to officially lock up the region title after their win over McAdory.

Northridge and Bessemer City play this week and McAdory and Bessemer City play on October 25. McAdory already beat Northridge.

Central-Tuscaloosa is at 2-3 and can tie Northridge, but Northridge has the head-to-head win. So the four teams are set, 2-4 just has to be determined still.

1. Parker (4-0) – HIGH
2. Homewood (4-0) – HIGH
3. Gardendale (2-3) – LOW
4. Minor (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Mortimer Jordan (2-3)

Homewood and Parker play this week for the region title. Parker can finish no lower than second, but if Homewood loses they will still have to beat Minor to guarantee home field.

Mortimer Jordan has now thrown their hat in the ring with a win over Gardendale this past week. They only have Jackson-Olin (1-3) left and if they win, they will sit at 3-3. Gardendale has winless Woodlawn left to put them at 3-3 with a win, while Minor has Jackson-Olin this week and Homewood the next week. Gardendale has the win over Minor which is why we have them ahead for now.

The way we project it to play out is that Gardendale/Minor/Mortimer Jordan all finish 3-3 and and that means it will go to non-region wins. It’s too early to tell, but right now it sits:

Gardendale – 5, with 1 game remaining
Minor – 5, with 1 game remaining
Mortimer Jordan – 0, with 1 game remaining

If Minor is able to beat Homewood, they will shift up and it will come down to the head-to-head for Mortimer Jordan and Gardendale which Mortimer Jordan has now won.

Because of all of this, seeds 3 and 4 are very up in the air and we have all teams involved with a confidence level of very low.

1. Clay-Chalkville (4-0) – HIGH
2. Oxford (4-0) – HIGH
3. Mountain Brook (2-2) – MEDIUM
4. Pell City (2-3) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Shades Valley (2-3)

Oxford and Clay play this week for the region title.

Mountain Brook is looking good for third but still need to defeat Shades Valley on October 25.

Shades Valley was taken down by Pell City this past week and if Pell City defeats Pinson Valley this week, they will lock up at least fourth. Shades Valley can get to 3-3 with a win over Mountain Brook, but they lose the tiebreaker to Pell City. They would need Pinson Valley to defeat Pell City in that scenario. So it’s either third or nothing for Shades Valley now and it’s a tough scenario.

1. Hartselle (4-0) – MEDIUM
2. Muscle Shoals (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Athens (2-2) – MEDIUM
4. Cullman (2-3) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Jasper (2-2)

Muscle Shoals was upset by Jasper this week to potentially throw a wrinkle in things. However, they already lost to both Cullman and Athens. If Cullman just beats Decatur (1-3) this week, they will be sitting ok. Athens also has an easy road to 4-2.

In order for Jasper to get in, they will have to pull off that upset magic again over Hartselle this week and try to get to 4-2 overall (they have winless Columbia after that). Jasper doesn’t want a 3-way tie with Athens and Cullman because Athens beat both of them and would win that tiebreaker, leaving Cullman over Jasper head-to-head.

Muscle Shoals and Hartselle is still going to be for the region title on October 25, even if Jasper does pull the upset this week (because the winner will be 5-1 at worst and still in first).

1. Fort Payne (4-0) – HIGH
2. Gadsden City (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. Southside Gadsden (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Mae Jemison (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Buckhorn (2-3)

Fort Payne got a big win over Gadsden City to make it where they only need to win one of their next two to lock up the region title. Gadsden City and Southside play this week for second.

Mae Jemison and Buckhorn play this week, and a Buckhorn loss would eliminate them. Mae Jemison and Gadsden City play the following week, so there could still be some chaos there.