(last updated 10/12/24, 9:46 am)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2024 season!

For Class 7A, there is a new playoff format starting this season. Please read more about it here. Things will look a little different than they have the last decade for 7A so please read the post for more specifics!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of the opponents defeated in non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins your team has. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs. Many teams may not be mathematically eliminated until the final week or two of region play, but many times the stars have to align just right for them to make it in, so we may not have them in the projection.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA alone determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 7A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Baker (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. Mary Montgomery (5-0) – MEDIUM
3. Fairhope (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Daphne (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Mary Montgomery took down Fairhope this past Friday and face Daphne this coming week. Mary Montgomery and Baker play this week to determine sole possession of first place. If Mary Montgomery wins, they win the region. If Baker wins and Fairhope beats Daphne, then Baker will still have to beat Fairhope to lock it up.

Even if Daphne loses to Fairhope and Robertsdale and ends up 3-4, they wouldn’t drop behind any of the teams behind them because of head-to-head wins over all of them. So the four teams are set, the order just has to be determined.

1. Auburn (5-0) – HIGH
2. Central-Phenix City (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Opelika (4-1) – LOW
4. Enterprise (2-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Carver-Montgomery (3-2)

This has been a fun region to watch and whatever four teams make it to the playoffs have a chance to win 1+ playoff games.

The team to watch here is Carver-Montgomery. They started the season 5-0 but have now lost to Enterprise by 3 and Central by 5. We have dropped them out for now because of their loss to Enterprise. Enterprise has the bottom two teams of the region left on their schedule and Carver has Auburn/Opelika left. If Carver loses to Auburn this week (who is the top team in the state right now), then they have to hope Opelika loses to Central this week and then Carver will need to beat Opelika to potentially cause a 3-way tie with Carver/Enterprise/Opelika.

Because Carver only played 9 games this year, it would go to tiebreaker N first which is “The team whose defeated opponents have the most victories” will win the tiebreaker. So you’d have to add up all of the victories from all of the teams that Carver/Enterprise/Opelika beat and see who has the most.

It could get complicated, but that also involves a very specific scenario. For now we project Enterprise to win out, Opelika to lose to Central, Carver to lose to Auburn, and then it would likely come down to the Carver/Opelika game.

1. Thompson (5-0) – HIGH
2. Hoover (5-0) – MEDIUM
3. Hewitt-Trussville (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Vestavia Hills (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Thompson and Hoover play this week for the region title. Thompson can finish no lower than second.

If Hoover loses, they will still have to get past Vestavia in the final week or there could be a 3-way tie for second at 5-2 which would go to non-region games. Right now, that stands: Hewitt (8), Hoover (2), Vestavia (0 + 1 game left). Hewitt’s three defeated teams only need two more total wins between the three of them to make it where they would win this no matter what. Vestavia has Clay-Chalkville left who at most would have 9. Hoover can’t win this tiebreaker. So if they lose to Thompson, then the Vestavia game will basically be for either a 2-seed and a home game or a 4-seed and a trip to Mobile against the Region 1 champion.

Prattville can still get to 4-3 if they beat Hillcrest and Thompson, but then they would lose any potential tiebreaker to Hewitt or Vestavia. Even with a 3-way tiebreaker (if Vestavia and Hewitt lost to also get to 4-3), Hewitt would win that with the head-to-head wins tiebreaker (B) over both Vestavia and Prattville before it got to the tiebreaker that would benefit Prattville for having a win over a top team (C or D).

1. Austin (5-0) – HIGH
2. James Clemens (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Sparkman (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Florence (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Bob Jones (2-3), Huntsville (2-3)

James Clemens was defeated by Sparkman which puts Austin in sole possession of first place. James Clemens hosts Austin this week. If Austin wins, they will be region champion. If James Clemens wins, they only need to beat winless Albertville to officially win the region.

Sparkman and Florence play on October 25 to determine position. Bob Jones did defeat Sparkman, so if they beat Albertville and then Huntsville, they could still work their way into the playoffs if Sparkman loses to Florence. Huntsville has Florence this week and Bob Jones the week after to potentially work their way in too. Things could either be fairly clear and set after this week or it could be complete chaos – we’ll see.