(last updated 10/31/25, 10:38 pm – THE BRACKET SHOULD BE SET…if the AHSAA’s stance on Region 4 holds)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2025 season!

For Class 7A, the playoff format is different than 1A-6A. Please read more about it here. Last year was the first year for it and things will continue to look a little different than they have the last decade for 7A so please read the post for more specifics!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

I started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. I thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 7A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Baker (6-1) – LOCKED
2. Mary Montgomery (6-1) – LOCKED
3. Fairhope (5-2) – LOCKED
4. Daphne (5-2) – LOCKED

Others that could grab a spot: None

This region is set. Baker defeated Mary Montgomery to win the region. Fairhope beat Daphne head-to-head to get third.

1. Central-Phenix City (7-0) – LOCKED
2. Auburn (6-1) – LOCKED
3. Opelika (4-3) – LOCKED
4. Carver-Montgomery (4-3) – LOCKED

Others that could grab a spot: None

This region is set. Opelika got the win over Carver to move up to 4-3, and thus eliminating Enterprise and Dothan from the mix. They move up to three with the win over Carver and Carver slips back to fourth.

1. Thompson (6-1) – LOCKED
2. Hewitt-Trussville (5-2) – LOCKED
3. Vestavia Hills (5-2) – LOCKED
4. Hoover (4-3) – LOCKED

Others that could grab a spot: None

This region is set. Prattville and Hoover tied, but Hoover won head-to-head so they get the fourth spot despite the loss to Vestavia.

Hewitt gets the tiebreak win over Vestavia head-to-head.

1. Sparkman (5-2)
2. James Clemens (5-2)
3. Austin (5-2)
4. Florence (5-2)

Others that could grab a spot: None

UPDATE:

Sparkman started proclaiming themselves region champs Monday afternoon, so thanks to AHSFHS and David Parker doing some digging – apparently the AHSAA is looking at tiebreakers differently than the rest of us.

Sparkman has been awarded the 1-seed from the AHSAA based on an email today that used tiebreaker’s G and H. These rules state (verbatim from the rule book):

g) Apply (c) using percentage against the No. 5 ranked team. If two teams tie for the highest winning percentage ahead of all the other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated the other in their required regular season game will be placed ahead of all tied teams. Then, if necessary, apply (a) or (b) as applicable for the remaining teams in the tie.

h) Apply (c) using percentage against the No. 6 ranked team. If two teams tie for the highest winning percentage ahead of all the other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated the other in their required regular season game will be placed ahead of all tied teams. Then, if necessary, apply (a) or (b) as applicable for the remaining teams in the tie.

Based on my understanding of these rules, I have never applied the tiebreaker if more than two teams are involved at the top. So if 3+ teams are involved, I have moved on to the next one until I got to one I could play out. Tiebreaker C does mention about any “team (or teams)” involved, but as you can see the tiebreakers only mention 2 teams after that, so I have always moved on.

However, according to the AHSAA we can apply as many teams as possible to a tiebreaker and keep going. Once we get to tiebreaker G (wins over #5 Huntsville), there are three teams tied – Sparkman, James Clemens and Florence. We have to pull those three teams out and start over again. They all beat each other, so it goes to tiebreaker H (wins over #6 Bob Jones) where only Florence and Sparkman beat them. So then you pull those two out and start over for a third time. Then Sparkman beat Florence head-to-head and is the winner of the tiebreaker.

Then you get to the remaining 3 teams for the second seed. James Clemens and Austin each beat Sparkman and James Clemens won head-to-head so they are second. Then Austin beat Florence head-to-head and so Austin is third and Florence is fourth.

I am leaving my original explanation of the rules as I interpreted them before for comparison so you can see my thinking on it. I guess I was wrong with it, but it happens. I honestly can’t remember the last 4-way tie we had with this scenario for first place to have any precedent to go on. I usually get quick corrections from people when I mess something up, but the fact that I got nothing until David helped in doing some digging let me know that no one else interpreted it this way either.

People are upset at the fact that the tie doesn’t go to the best winning percentage among the four teams, instead it’s just based on “did you beat them all” or “who beat a certain team in a certain position”. If you look at the win percentages among the teams involved, James Clemens and Austin were both 2-1 while Sparkman and Florence were both 1-2 – so between the two teams tied at the top, James Clemens would actually be first. But that’s not the way the AHSAA does things.

For what it’s worth, I’m hearing there are some objections to the AHSAA’s ruling, so we’ll see…

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ORIGINAL THOUGHTS (updated with wins/losses as of Friday, 10/31):

So if we go through the tiebreakers, the first one to come to (since no one team beat all the other 3) is tiebreaker G which is the teams with the best win percentage against the #5 ranked team, which is Huntsville. Three of the teams beat Huntsville, Austin did not. However, you can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. Since TWO teams didn’t tie, but THREE, we can’t use this one.

1. Florence (wins non-region tiebreaker)
2. James Clemens (beat both Austin AND Sparkman head-to-head)
3. Austin (beat Sparkman Head-to-head)
4. Sparkman