(last updated 10/13/24, 11:54 am)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2024 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 2A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Clarke County (4-0) – MEDIUM
2. JU Blacksher (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. Washington County (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. St. Luke’s (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Chickasaw (1-3)

JU Blacksher defeated Washington County this past week. Clarke County and St. Luke’s play this week and then Clarke County/Washington County is next week.

Chickasaw has to beat Bayshore Christian (1-3) this week and then St. Luke’s the following week to get in.

1. Cottonwood (5-0) – HIGH
2. Providence Christian (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Ariton (3-2) – MEDIUM
3. Houston County (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Cottonwood has defeated Providence Christian and Ariton already so if they just beat Abbeville (1-4) this week then they will lock up the region title.

Providence Christian has more work to do with GW Long and Houston County remaining. If Houston County defeats Geneva County (2-3) this week, it will eliminate both Geneva County and GW Long (2-3).

1. Highland Home (4-0) – HIGH
2. Goshen (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Luverne (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Pike Liberal Arts (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Highland Home and Pike play this week and if Highland Home wins, they lock up the region and Pike locks up fourth. Goshen and Luverne play next week to determine second.

1. Reeltown (5-0) – LOCKED
2. Loachapoka (3-2) – LOW
3. Horseshoe Bend (2-2) – LOW
4. Lanett (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Ranburne (2-2)

Reeltown has locked up the region title.

Of the three teams behind Loachapoka tied for 2-2, the only game that has been played is Horseshoe Bend beat Ranburne.

Lanett and Horseshoe Bend play this week as do Loachapoka and Ranburne. Ranburne and Lanett play the following week. We will know more after this week’s games.

1. Tuscaloosa Academy (5-0) – LOCKED
2. Vincent (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. Aliceville (2-2) – LOW
4. Greene County (2-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Sulligent (2-2)

Tuscaloosa Academy has locked up the region title. They face Sulligent this week.

We have Greene County ahead of Sulligent right now because they won head-to-head. If Tuscaloosa Academy beats Sulligent, then Sulligent/Greene County will both be 2-3 going into the final week. Aliceville and Sulligent then play on October 25 while Greene County plays Vincent.

Sulligent is definitely not out of it, but that loss to Greene County means they don’t want to end up tied with them.

1. Coosa Christian (5-0) – LOCKED
2. Southeastern (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. Falkville (2-2) – LOW
4. Susan Moore (2-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Cold Springs (2-2)

Coosa Christian has locked up the region title. Southeastern and Cold Springs play this week.

Susan Moore lost to Falkville beat Cold Springs early in the season which is why we have them ahead. Cold Springs has Falkville next week. If Susan Moore beats Cleveland (1-3) this week, they will be in good position unless Cold Springs wins out.

1. Pisgah (4-0) – HIGH
2. Pleasant Valley (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. North Sand Mountain (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Sand Rock (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Cedar Bluff (2-3)

Pleasant Valley and North Sand Mountain face off this week. If Pisgah beats Gaston and Pleasant Valley beats North Sand Mountain, then Pisgah will lock up the region. If not, they will have to beat North Sand Mountain the following week. North Sand Mountain has a loss to Sand Rock.

Cedar Bluff faces Sand Rock this week and if Sand Rock wins, it could vault them up to third.

1. Winston County (3-0) – HIGH
2. Decatur Heritage (3-0) – HIGH
3. Lexington (2-2) – HIGH
4. Red Bay (1-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Tanner (1-3)

Winston County and Decatur Heritage play on October 25. Lexington has already defeated Tanner and only has winless Tharptown left. So while they aren’t mathematically locked into third, they are as close as you can be.

Red Bay has Decatur Heritage this week. Assuming that’s a loss, they will face Tanner for the final playoff spot next week.