(last updated 10/4/24, 11:23 pm)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2024 season!

For Class 7A, there is a new playoff format starting this season. Please read more about it here. Things will look a little different than they have the last decade for 7A so please read the post for more specifics!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of the opponents defeated in non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins your team has. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs. Many teams may not be mathematically eliminated until the final week or two of region play, but many times the stars have to align just right for them to make it in, so we may not have them in the projection.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA alone determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 7A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Baker (4-0) – MEDIUM
2. Fairhope (4-0) – MEDIUM
3. Mary Montgomery (4-0) – MEDIUM
4. Daphne (2-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Foley (1-3), Alma Bryant (1-3)

The top three are all in good position but still have to play each other. They should be pretty much locked into the playoffs though. Any of the top 3 spots can be in any order.

Daphne has already beaten Foley and play Alma Bryant this week. They should be in good position to still make the playoffs.

1. Auburn (4-0) – MEDIUM
2. Central-Phenix City (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. Carver-Montgomery (3-1) – LOW
4. Opelika (3-1) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Enterprise (2-2)

Auburn got a big win over Central 38-33 this week to sit atop the standings alone. They also already beat Opelika 28-21 in Week 2. So they basically only need to beat Carver on October 18 and the region title will be theirs. Central and Carver play this coming week and then Central and Opelika play on the 18th.

Enterprise’s win over Carver this week put them right back in the discussion, but they have to beat Opelika this week on the road.

1. Thompson (4-0) – HIGH
2. Hoover (4-0) – HIGH
3. Hewitt-Trussville (2-2) – MEDIUM
4. Vestavia Hills (2-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Prattville (2-2)

Thompson and Hoover stand atop this region for now and will essentially play for the region title on October 18 barring anything crazy. Their only similar opponents are Oak Mountain (Thompson +35, Hoover +18) and Hewitt-Trussville (Thompson +5, Hoover +1), so we have Thompson first for now.

Hewitt has been back and forth in region play – having to come back at the last second to beat Vestavia and losing to Hoover by 1 before blowing out Hillcrest 47-16. Now they have a close loss to Thompson. Their schedule looks easy on the surface, and Prattville is essentially in a must win next week against Hewitt if they want to have any chance.

Vestavia is 2-2 with losses to Hewitt at the last second in Week 2 and Thompson in Week 4 after being up 17-14 at halftime, falling 38-17 after three defensive touchdowns from Thompson. Their loss to Hewitt will make it tough to pass them since they still have Hoover.

1. James Clemens (4-0) – HIGH
2. Austin (4-0) – HIGH
3. Florence (2-2) – MEDIUM
4. Bob Jones (2-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Sparkman (2-2)

James Clemens faces Sparkman this week and Austin the week after. If both James Clemens and Austin win this week, then that game is guaranteed to be for the region title.

Bob Jones got a big win over Sparkman so we’ve moved them up to fourth. Florence beat Bob Jones in overtime a few weeks ago and still has to play Sparkman.