(last updated 10/18/25, 1:18 pm)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2025 season!

For Class 7A, the playoff format is different than 1A-6A. Please read more about it here. Last year was the first year for it and things will continue to look a little different than they have the last decade for 7A so please read the post for more specifics!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

I started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. I thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 7A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Baker (5-1) – LOW
2. Mary Montgomery (5-1) – LOW
3. Fairhope (5-1) – LOW
4. Daphne (4-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: None

Baker defeated Mary Montgomery to make a 3-way tie for first. Baker and Fairhope play this week, and Baker has already lost to Daphne. So a win for Baker locks them in as region champ, and a loss for Baker drops them all the way to fourth.

Davidson is 3-3, but they can only tie Daphne, and they lost already to the Trojans.

1. Central-Phenix City (6-0) – LOCKED
2. Auburn (5-1) – LOCKED
3. Carver-Montgomery (4-2) – MEDIUM
4. Opelika (3-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Enterprise (2-4), Dothan (3-3)

Central has won the region title with a big win over Opelika and they only have 0-6 JAG left. Auburn beat Carver and is locked into second.

Opelika and Carver play in the final week, and a win will lock up third for either team. However, an Opelika loss would put them at 3-4 where they would lose a tiebreaker to Enterprise if Enterprise can beat 1-5 Smiths Station.

Dothan lost to Opelika, but beat Enterprise, so if they lose to Auburn and enter a 3-way tie at 3-4, it would go to non-region games at that point.

Opelika – 14 (Benjamin Russell 7, Pike Road 7 – potential of Benjamin Russell 9, Pike Road 8)
Enterprise – 14 (Andalusia 7, Pike Road 7 – potential of Andalusia 8, Pike Road 8)
Dothan – 4 (Chiles 4 – potential of Chiles 6)

I don’t know if Godby (FL 3A) or Monroe (GA 3A) will count for Dothan, and I don’t know if Choctawhatchee (FL 4A) will either for Enterprise or Callaway (GA 2A) for Opelika. It may come down to Benjamin Russell and Andalusia – which finishes with more wins. If it’s a tie or Andalusia wins more then Enterprise is fourth.

1. Thompson (5-1) – HIGH
2. Hewitt-Trussville (4-2) – MEDIUM
3. Vestavia Hills (4-2) – LOW
4. Hoover (4-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Prattville (4-2)

This went from crazy to even crazier after Hoover nailed a 55-yard field goal to knock off Thompson. Now, Thompson can still walk away with the region title if they beat Prattville, but if Prattville can somehow pull off that upset…look out.

There are FOUR teams tied at 4-2. The big games to keep an eye on are Thompson/Prattville and Hoover/Vestavia. Hewitt lucked out with winless Tuscaloosa County and will very likely move to 5-2. so knowing Hewitt is 5-2, here are the scenarios:

Thompson and Hoover win:

1. Thompson 6-1
2. Hewitt 5-2 (H2H over Hoover)
3. Hoover 5-2
4. Vestavia 4-3 (H2H over Prattville)
5. Prattville 4-3

Thompson and Vestavia win:

1. Thompson 6-1
2. Hewitt 5-2 (H2H over Vestavia)
3. Vestavia 5-2
4. Hoover 4-3 (H2H over Prattville)
5. Prattville 4-3

Prattville and Vestavia win:

*. Thompson 5-2
*. Hewitt 5-2
*. Vestavia 5-2
*. Prattville 5-2
5. Hoover 4-3

Prattville and Hoover win:

*. Thompson 5-2
*. Hewitt 5-2
*. Hoover 5-2
*. Prattville 5-2
5. Vestavia 4-3

So in the event of a Prattville win, there would be a 4-way tie for first. Yeah… We usually skip to tiebreaker L, but in this scenario, it would actually go to tiebreaker G which states “The team (or teams) that had the highest winning percentage against the No. 5 ranked team will be ranked ahead of all the other tied teams. If two teams tie for the highest winning percentage ahead of all the other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated the other in their required regular season game will be placed ahead of all tied teams.”

Because of this, it would go to winning percentage over Hoover or Vestavia. Then after each tiebreaker is applied, it starts all over again and we go down the tiebreaker list.

If Vestavia wins, it will likely be:

1. Hewitt (tied with Vestavia for most wins over Hoover (Tiebreaker G), and won H2H over Vestavia)
2. Prattville (tied with Thompson for most wins over Hewitt (Tiebreaker C) and won H2H over Thompson)
3. Thompson (H2H over Vestavia)
4. Vestavia

If Hoover wins, there are three teams in the tie that have beaten Vestavia, so we can’t apply Tiebreaker G. So then it would go to non-region tiebreaker L which states “The team whose defeated non-region opponents (in class, above class, and within two classes below) have the most victories if all teams involved in the tie play an equal number of games.”

As of right now (after October 17), here are the numbers. The numbers are how many wins their defeated opponents have, and if there is a range, their current number is the low, and second number is the highest possible number):

Hoover – 12 (Spain Park 6-8, Parker 6-7)
Hewitt – 9 (JAG 1-3, Gadsden City 5-7, Pinson Valley 3-5)
Prattville – 5 (Stanhope Elmore 5-7, possibility of JAG 1-2)
Thompson – 5 (Carver-Montgomery 5-7)

What’s crazy is, Thompson scheduled the #1 team in Alabama and the #1 team in Georgia, lost both close, and because of it will have maybe the worst total out of this tiebreaker. It doesn’t keep them out of the playoffs, but it would push them down in the standings. On the flip side, Thompson wins those games, and they have already locked up the region title with an easy win in this tiebreaker with probably 20 more wins.

So if Hoover beats Vestavia in this scenario (where Prattville upsets Thompson), then they would win this tiebreaker most likely. While Hewitt has more wins, none of them are really quality wins like Hoover. There is a chance Hewitt can win it, and a chance Hewitt and Hoover would tie (in which case tiebreaker goes to head-to-head and is Hewitt).

If Hoover wins the tiebreaker, it will likely be:

1. Hoover
2. Prattville (H2H over Hewitt AND Thompson)
3. Thompson (H2H over Hewitt)
4. Hewitt

I think the way it plays out, Thompson is either first with a win or third with a loss. With a Thompson loss, then the winner of Hoover/Vestavia is not only in, but region champ and the loser is out completely. With a Thompson win, they are both in, but the winner is third and loser is fourth. Prattville has to win to make the playoffs due to their head-to-head losses to Hoover and Vestavia, and if they did it would be a home game.

With all of that said – we don’t see Thompson losing to Prattville, so it would play out in those scenarios. But it’s fun to play it out in your head. I won’t put Hewitt in lock territory in second yet because they aren’t mathematically a lock, but almost every scenario has them in second.

1. Florence (5-1) – LOW
2. James Clemens (4-2) – LOW
3. Austin (4-2) – LOW
4. Sparkman (4-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Huntsville (3-3), Bob Jones (3-3)

Not to be outdone by region 3, this one is coming down to the wire too.

Sparkman and Florence play next week. If Florence wins, they are region champ. If Sparkman wins, there will likely be a 4-way tie at 5-2 (because James Clemens and Austin have the two bottom teams). Bob Jones and Huntsville play next week too, and the winner will be at 4-3, and have to hope that one of the 4-2 teams lose – for Huntsville it’s Austin and for Bob Jones it’s James Clemens.

Here is how the tiebreaker currently sits:

Austin – 2 (Decatur 2-3, potentially Muscle Shoals 7-8)
Florence – 0 (potentially Oxford 4-5)
James Clemens – 0 (potentially Homewood 7-8)
Sparkman – 0

So…Austin is likely to win this unless Florence can beat Oxford (and Florence may not need to be in it).