(last updated 10/13/25, 12:43 pm)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2025 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

I started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. I thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that. NEW FOR 2025 – At the bottom is what we are calling our “projection bracket”. Some of it is the same as the main bracket, but there are some things that we know for a fact won’t play out the way it seems at this point in time. We will only do this for a week or two to help let people know where they are projecting, even if it’s wildly different from what it seems right now.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 6A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Saraland (6-0) – HIGH
2. Theodore (5-0) – HIGH
3. St. Paul’s (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Gulf Shores (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Spanish Fort (3-3), McGill-Toolen (2-3)

9-team regions are always hard to predict exact spots until we get deep into the season since it will go until the actual last week after most other regions are done. But here is how it is now – Saraland and Theodore are the clear runaway favorites and face each other this week.

St. Paul’s already has a win over Gulf Shores and face McGill this week and Spanish Fort in the final week. Gulf Shores just beat Spanish Fort, but face Theodore this week. McGill will definitely have a tough time with St. Paul’s and Spanish Fort the next two weeks, but just one win there could help them potentially enter a tiebreaker.

1. Pike Road (5-0) – HIGH
2. Russell County (4-0) – HIGH
3. Stanhope Elmore (2-2) – MEDIUM
4. Wetumpka (2-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Pike Road and Russell County face off this week for first, loser is still guaranteed second. Stanhope and Wetumpka play on October 24 and is basically a game for third and fourth as long as Stanhope beats Rehobeth this weekend.

1. Benjamin Russell (4-0) – HIGH
2. Spain Park (3-1) – HIGH
3. Pelham (3-2) – LOW
4. Chelsea (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Helena (2-2)

Benjamin Russell is sitting good atop the region now and only need to win one of their next two to lock up the region title. Spain Park should be fairly solid in second barring wild upsets.

Helena is back in it after a win over Pelham this week. They face Chelsea this week.

Pelham has Benjamin Russell so a loss would drop them to 3-3. Even if Chelsea beats Helena, there is a chance this goes to a 3-way tiebreaker on non-region games which right now Chelsea is winning by default because Pelham and Helena haven’t won any – but that could drastically change based on who is left on each of their schedules.

Let’s see who wins this week and we can more accurately lay out scenarios if that happens.

1. Hueytown (4-0) – HIGH
2. McAdory (3-1) – HIGH
3. Bessemer City (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Central-Tuscaloosa (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Northridge (2-3)

Hueytown defeated McAdory this past week and already have a win over Bessemer City. They only need to win one of their next two against Brookwood (0-4) and Central to lock up the title.

McAdory and Bessemer City play on October 24 to determine second. Northridge lost to Central already, but face Bessemer City this week. If they can win that, a McAdory win over Bessemer City would cause a 3-way tiebreaker (if Hueytown also beats Central). We’ll see what happens this week and map out that scenario if it’s a possibility.

1. Parker (4-0) – HIGH
2. Homewood (4-0) – HIGH
3. Minor (2-2) – LOW
4. Jackson-Olin (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Mortimer Jordan (2-3)

Homewood and Parker play for the region title this week with the winner guaranteed first. Parker can’t fall past second with a loss so they have locked up a home game. However, Homewood has Minor after that. Minor and Jackson-Olin play this week an a Minor win would make the Homewood game for second place.

Mortimer Jordan has snuck in to the conversation after beating Minor two weeks ago. Despite having lost to Woodlawn, they now only have Jackson-Olin left. If Minor beats JO, then a Mortimer Jordan win over JO would vault them up to third and Minor to fourth (with a loss to Homewood). If JO beats Minor, then Mortimer Jordan could lose and still potentially make it in at 2-4 as long as Woodlawn loses to Gardendale this weekend. If Woodlawn won, then Minor would likely win a 3-way tie at 2-4 because they are the only team with non-region wins so far.

Let’s see who wins the games this weekend and we can more accurately portray scenarios.

1. Clay-Chalkville (4-0) – HIGH
2. Oxford (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. Pell City (3-2) – LOW
4. Mountain Brook (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Pinson Valley (2-2)

Clay and Oxford technically play for the region title this week, but no one seems to be able to stop Clay.

As of now, Oxford is second based on record, but they got thumped by Mountain Brook 42-14 a few weeks ago. They currently sit at 3-1, and as long as they beat Huffman, will be at 4-2 in region play with a loss to Clay.

Pell City is at 3-2 now, with a win over Mountain Brook, and will face Pinson Valley on October 17. Mountain Brook just beat Pinson and have games against the two bottom teams left. Assuming Mountain Brook wins over Huffman/Shades Valley – they will be the two seed as long as Clay wins over Oxford. So while they are fourth right now, that will not be the case long term. There is a very strong chance they are second – just note that.

The final spot comes down to Pell City and Pinson this week. If Pinson wins, they will get the fourth spot, even with a loss to Clay in the final week.

If Pell City wins, there could be a 3-way tie with them, Mountain Brook and Oxford that would go to non-region games, which currently stand:

Mountain Brook – 15, potential of up to 24 (Demopolis 5, Hueytown 4, Homewood 6 – potential of Demopolis 8, Hueytown 7, Homewood 9)
Pell City – 3, potential of up to 19 (Pelham 3 – potential of Pelham 6, Central Clay County 7-8, Southside-Gadsden 3-5)
Oxford – 2, potential of up to 11 (Helena 2 – potential of Helena 5, potential of Florence 4-6)

One note – Coosa Christian doesn’t count for Pell City because they are 2A. But regardless, Mountain Brook is in a great position to win this, especially since their defeated teams should win at least 2-3 more games each. Oxford can’t win this. It will be tough for anyone to catch Mountain Brook.

If Mountain Brook does indeed win this tiebreaker, it will be – 2) Mountain Brook, 3) Oxford, 4) Pell City

1. Muscle Shoals (5-0) – HIGH
2. Hartselle (4-0) – HIGH
3. Jasper (3-1) – HIGH
4. Athens (1-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Decatur (1-3), Cullman (1-4)

Jasper and Hartselle face off this week and then Hartselle and Muscle Shoals play the following week. Even if they lose out, Jasper will be no lower than third.

Athens, Cullman and Decatur are limping to the finish line as the fourth team and they all still have to play each other – except for Athens who already beat Cullman early in the season, which is why we have them fourth currently.

1. Fort Payne (4-0) – HIGH
2. Gadsden City (3-1) – HIGH
3. Buckhorn (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Southside Gadsden (2-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Mae Jemison (2-2)

Fort Payne only needs to win one more to lock up the region title now that they have defeated Gadsden City, and they have the two bottom teams left. Gadsden City still has work to do with Southside and Mae Jemison left. Southside already defeated Mae Jemison so they win that tiebreaker.

Buckhorn has Mae Jemison left and a win will put them solidly in third.