(last updated 10/19/25,11:38 am)
It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2025 season!
The boring, but important stuff:
Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.
I started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. I thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.
Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:
– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.
– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.
– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.
– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.
– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.
– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.
Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 5A as of right now:
Confidence
LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results
(records are region records only)
Region 1
1. Williamson (6-0) – LOCKED
2. Vigor (5-1) – LOCKED
3. UMS-Wright (4-2) – LOCKED
4. Citronelle (3-3) – HIGH
Others that could grab a spot: LeFlore (3-3)
The top three are locked in, and Citronelle has the tiebreak now over LeFlore. Citronelle would have to lose to winless Elberta and LeFlore would have to beat Williamson to switch places.
Region 2
1. Andalusia (5-0) – HIGH
2. Eufaula (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Montgomery Catholic (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Charles Henderson (3-2) – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: None
Andalusia already has wins over Eufaula and Henderson. They face Montgomery Catholic on October 24. Eufaula already defeated Montgomery Catholic and face Charles Henderson on the final week as well.
Region 3
1. Northside (5-0) – HIGH
2. Demopolis (5-0) – HIGH
3. Shelby County (4-2) – LOCKED
4. Sipsey Valley (2-3) – HIGH
Others that could grab a spot: None
Northside and Demopolis play each other for the region title on October 24. Shelby County has locked up third and are done with region play.
Sipsey Valley and Selma (1-4) play on October 24. Sipsey Valley already beat Jemison (1-4), and Jemison beat Selma. So it will either be a 3-way tie or Sipsey Valley will get in at fourth. If that happened, the non-region tiebreaker numbers would be:
Sipsey Valley – 5, potential of 9 (Greene County 4, Marbury 1 – potential of Greene County 6, Marbury 3)
Selma – 0 (Park Crossing 0 – potential of Park Crossing 2)
Jemison – 0, potential of 6 (no wins so far – potential of Hale County 6)
So if Jemison doesn’t beat Hale County (with Hale County also beating Dallas County this week), then Sipsey Valley wins this regardless. And even if Jemison does, Sipsey Valley’s teams only have to win 1 more to at worst tie Jemison, then Sipsey Valley would get in on head-to-head over Jemison.
So the stars have to align for it to not be Sipsey Valley.
Region 4
1. Central-Clay County (6-0) – LOCKED
2. Valley (4-1) – LOCKED
3. Elmore County (3-2) – LOCKED
4. Beauregard (2-3) – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Sylacauga (1-4), Holtville (1-4)
Central-Clay County has already locked up the region title.
Valley has locked up second with only Beauregard left, and Elmore County has locked up third because they already beat Beauregard head-to-head.
Beauregard has 4-1 Valley this week, and a win will lock them into fourth. If they lose, there could be a 3-way tiebreaker at 2-4 with Beauregard, Sylacauga (if they win over Elmore County) and the winner of Marbury/Holtville. If it’s Holtville, then Sylacauga is fourth with a win over both teams in the tiebreaker. If it’s Marbury, then it will go to non-region tiebreakers which currently stands:
Sylacauga – 2, potential of 12 because Montevallo/Jemison play (Montevallo 1, Jemison 1 – potential of Montevallo 3, Jemison 3, Glenwood 7)
Beauregard – 0, potential of 8 (potential of Russell County 8)
Marbury – 0, potential of 2 (no wins yet – potential of Elberta 2)
For Sylacauga, Central Coosa doesn’t count because they are 2A and the lowest you can play and it count in 5A is 3A. They are also guaranteed +1 since Montevallo and Jemison play this week. So Marbury can’t win this.
This one is far from over, because in this scenario, a win over 3A Glenwood could be the deciding factor for Sylacauga.
Region 5
1. Corner (4-1) – MEDIUM
2. Briarwood (4-1) – <MEDIUM
3. Ramsay (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Carver-Birmingham (3-2) – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: None
Briarwood has winless Hayden left, so they should finish 5-1.
Ramsay has 2-3 Wenonah left. Even if Wenonah wins, they lost to Carver head-to-head and won’t have another team for a 3-way tie to matter, so Carver can’t fall out.
Corner and Carver play this week. Assuming Briarwood and Ramsay win:
Carver wins:
1. Briarwood (H2H over Ramsay)
2. Ramsay
3. Carver
4. Corner
Corner wins – it goes to tiebreaker N because they didn’t all play 10 games (Ramsay played 9). In non-region, here is how the teams fared.
Corner – 14, potential of 18 (Winfield 7, Dora 2, Jacksonville 5 – potential of Winfield 8, Dora 3, Jacksonville 7)
Ramsay – 4, potential of 6 (Minor 4 – potential of Minor 6)
Briarwood – 0, potential of 7 (no wins yet – potential of McAdory 7)
In region, we can cancel out the teams they collectively beat in this scenario – Carver, John Carroll, Hayden, Wenonah. That leaves each other:
Corner – defeated Briarwood (4, potential of 6)
Ramsay – defeated Corner (8, potential of 9), counting Corner over Carver already in this scenario
Briarwood – defeated Ramsay (5, potential of 6)
So if you add the totals up:
Corner – 18, potential of 24
Ramsay – 12, potential of 15
Briarwood – 5, potential of 13
So Corner is going to win this tiebreaker regardless. Then Briarwood would be second based on head-to-head over Ramsay and Ramsay would be third. Corner is playing for either first or fourth against Carver.
Region 6
1. Moody (5-0) – LOCKED
2. Jacksonville (4-1) – HIGH
3. St. Clair County (4-1) – HIGH
4. Leeds (3-3) – LOCKED
Others that could grab a spot: None
Moody has locked up the region title. Jacksonville and St. Clair County play this week for second and third. Leeds has locked up fourth.
Region 7
1. Fairview (5-0) – LOCKED
2. Russellville (4-1) – HIGH
3. Priceville (4-1) – HIGH
4. West Point (2-3) – MEDIUM
Others that could grab a spot: Ardmore (2-3)
Fairview has locked up the region title.
Russellville and Priceville play for second and third this week.
The winner of West Point and Ardmore this week will be in as the fourth seed.
Region 8
1. Scottsboro (5-1) – LOCKED
2. Guntersville (4-1) – LOCKED
3. Boaz (3-2) – HIGH
4. Arab (3-2) – HIGH
Others that could grab a spot: None
Arab and Boaz play this week for third, loser gets fourth. Even if Guntersville loses to Douglas, they are safe in second with head-to-head on the winner of Arab/Boaz.