(last updated 10/12/24, 10:29 pm)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2024 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– when it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 4A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Jackson (4-0) – HIGH
2. St. Michael (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Orange Beach (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Mobile Christian (2-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: WS Neal (2-2)

Jackson defeated Orange Beach to make it where they only need to defeat WS Neal this week to lock up the region title. Orange Beach and Mobile Christian play this week, then Orange Beach and St. Michael play next week.

WS Neal is technically alive and it could come down to their final game against Mobile Christian if both lose this week.

1. Dale County (4-1) – MEDIUM
2. Opp (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Straughn (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Pike County (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Ashford (3-2)

Dale County has defeated Opp and Straughn but has a loss to Ashford early in the season. If they beat Pike County on October 18, they will still likely win the region. Pike County has now lost to Opp and Straughn but they beat Ashford.

This will likely come down to the final week, so we will have to wait and see what happens this week to set the stage for the final week of region play.

1. St. James (5-0) – HIGH
2. BT Washington (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Tallassee (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Handley (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Bullock County (2-3)

St. James has beaten Handley and BT Washington (they play Tallassee this week). Tallassee beat Handley this past week Handley/BT Washington play on October 25. Still some deciding to do but these four seem the likely four playoff teams.

BT Washington has the head-to-head over Tallassee. Bullock County can win over BT Washington this week and potentially stay alive.

1. Bibb County (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. Pleasant Grove (5-0) – MEDIUM
3. Fairfield (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Oak Grove (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: West Blocton (2-3), American Christian (2-3)

Bibb County and Pleasant Grove play next week for the region title regardless of what happens this week due to their two game lead on everyone else. However, both teams have to win this week if they want to guarantee home field advantage going into next week’s game.

West Blocton’s win over Fairfield has them suddenly alive. Assuming they fall to Pleasant Grove this week and beat winless Tarrant next week, they will be 3-4 and Fairfield still has Bibb County and Oak Grove left to potentially end up 3-4 as well.

ACA has Oak Grove and Holt (0-5) left to potentially make them 4-3 if they win out.

1. Good Hope (5-0) – HIGH
2. Dora (5-0) – HIGH
3. Fultondale (3-2) – LOW
4. Fayette County (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Hamilton (2-3)

Good Hope and Dora face off next week for the region title regardless because of their two game lead. Fultondale has already beaten both Hamilton and Fayette County, so if they can just win out over the two bottom teams in the region, they will lock up third. Hamilton and Fayette County also play on October 25 to figure out the final spot.

1. Cherokee County (5-0) – HIGH
2. Alexandria (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Hokes Bluff (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Anniston (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Etowah (2-3)

Cherokee County already has a win over Etowah and Anniston, they face Alexandria this week. Alexandria’s one region loss is actually to Anniston, so there is a good chance Anniston can move up.

Etowah still has Alexandria, but other than winning out and hoping the teams ahead of them lose, they will have a tough time getting in.

1. West Morgan (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. Central-Florence (4-1) – LOW
3. Brooks (4-2) – LOW
4. Hatton (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Deshler (3-2), West Limestone (3-3)

This is a nine team region that will go to the final week, which is when West Morgan and Deshler play (11/1), with West Morgan and Central Florence facing off this week. Deshler beat Central Florence, but have a loss to Hatton and Brooks

West Limestone still has Deshler and Brooks left.

With this being a nine team region and everyone beating everyone behind West Morgan – this will take a while to sort out.

1. Randolph (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. North Jackson (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Westminster Christian (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Madison Academy (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: New Hope (3-2), Plainview (3-2)

This is also a nine team region that will take some time to play out. Madison Academy defeated New Hope and face Plainview this week.

Randolph/North Jackson and Westminster Christian/New Hope will face off on October 25.