(last updated 10/14/25, 12:08 pm)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2025 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– when it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 4A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. St. Michael (5-0) – LOCKED
2. Jackson (3-1) – HIGH
3. WS Neal (3-1) – MEDIUM
4. Mobile Christian (2-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Orange Beach (2-2)

St. Michael has locked up the region title. Jackson and WS Neal play for second this week. Mobile Christian and Orange Beach play what can be seen as an elimination game this week as well. Then Mobile Christian and WS Neal play the final week.

1. Dale County (4-1) – MEDIUM
2. Ashford (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Opp (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Pike County (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Straughn (3-2)

Dale County has beaten Ashford and Opp, but lost to Straughn. They play Pike County this week. Straughn already lost to Pike County, and has New Brockton (2-3) and Opp remaining.

Ashford and Opp play this week.

There are a lot of scenarios that could play out, but we need to let this week finish so we can see a clearer picture.

1. Handley (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. BT Washington (5-0) – MEDIUM
3. Bullock County (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. St. James (2-3) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Tallassee (2-3)

BT Washington still has to get through Bullock County and Handley, while Handley already has a win over Bullock County.

Tallassee and St. James play this week for fourth.

1. Oak Grove (4-1) – MEDIUM
2. Bibb County (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. American Christian (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. West Blocton (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Pleasant Grove (3-2)

Oak Grove has a win over Bibb County and plays ACA this week. Bibb County already beat ACA. West Blocton plays Pleasant Grove this week.

1. Hamilton (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. Fayette County (5-0) – MEDIUM
3. Good Hope (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Fultondale (2-3) – HIGH

Others that could grab a spot: Dora (2-3)

Hamilton beat Good Hope last week and face Fayette County in the final week. Good Hope and Fayette County play this week. We’ll know more specific scenarios once they play.

Fultondale already beat Dora and have two of the bottom teams left.

1. Anniston (5-0) – HIGH
2. Alexandria (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Cherokee County (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Ashville (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Hokes Bluff (2-3), Oneonta (2-3)

Anniston already has wins over the three other teams listed as in the playoffs right now. They only need to win one of their next two against Oneonta (2-3) or winless White Plains to lock up the region title.

Alexandria and Cherokee County face off this week for second. Ashville already has a win over Oneonta and face Hokes Bluff this weekend. A win locks them into fourth. A loss opens the door for Oneonta as them and Hokes Bluff play the following week and Ashville has to face Cherokee County.

1. West Morgan (5-0) – HIGH
2. Deshler (5-0) – HIGH
3. Hatton (3-2) – LOW
4. Brooks (3-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Central-Florence (3-2)

This is a 9-team region that isn’t very clear yet other than West Morgan and Deshler are definitely the top 2 teams. They don’t play until October 30.

Brooks lost to Hatton but beat Central Florence. Hatton and Central play this week. This region definitely needs to play out a bit.

1. Madison Academy (5-0) – HIGH
2. Plainview (5-0) – HIGH
3. North Jackson (3-2) – LOW
4. Randolph (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Madison County (3-3)

This is another 9-team region, but Madison Academy and Plainview are separating from the pack. North Jackson and Randolph only have losses to those two and play each other on October 24.

Madison County already lost to North Jackson, but faces Randolph this week and if they lose, it will be the four teams listed most likely.