(last updated 10/19/24, 4:30 pm)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2025 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 3A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Bayside Academy (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. Cottage Hill Christian (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. TR Miller (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Flomaton (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Bayside Academy and TR Miller play this week, as do Cottage Hill and Flomaton. A Bayside win locks up the region for them. If TR Miller and Cottage Hill both win, then there will be a 3-way tie for first that will go to the non-region tiebreaker, which currently stands:

TR Miller – 10, potential of 20 (Reeltown 6, Straughn 4 – potential of Reeltown 8, Straughn 6, WS Neal 6)
Cottage Hill Christian – 10, potential of 19 (Washington County 5, Satsuma 2, Choctaw County 3 – potential of Washington County 7, Satsuma 4, Choctaw County 4, St. Luke’s 4)
Bayside Academy – 5, potential of 16 (Marbury 1, Orange Beach 4 – potential of Marbury 3, Orange Beach 5, Tuscaloosa Academy 8)

TR Miller and Cottage Hill are tied right now, and it could go a number of ways depending on their opponents, with both of them having a game left. Bayside can still technically win as well.

If TR Miller wins the tiebreaker – 1) TR Miller, 2) Bayside, 3) Cottage Hill

If Cottage Hill wins – 1) Cottage Hill, 2) TR Miller, 3) Bayside

If Bayside Academy wins – 1) Bayside, 2) Cottage Hill, 3) TR Miller

1. Montgomery Academy (6-0) – LOCKED
2. Trinity (5-1) – MEDIUM
3. Wicksburg (4-2) – MEDIUM
4. Houston Academy (4-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Montgomery Academy has locked up the region title. Trinity and Houston Academy play this week. A Houston Academy win would cause a 3-way tie (Wicksburg plays winless Northside Methodist). It would go to non-region games then:

Houston Academy – 9, potential of 18 (GW Long 5, Pike County 4 – potential of GW Long 7, Pike County 5, Providence Christian 6)
Trinity – 4, potential of 7 (Holtville 2, St. James 2 – potential of Holtville 4, St. James 3)
Wicksburg – 2, potential of 6 (Geneva 1, Daleville 1 – potential of Geneva 3, Daleville 3)

So if Houston Academy wins, they are guaranteed to be second. Then Trinity would be third with head-to-head over Wicksburg.

1. Southside-Selma (6-0) – HIGH
2. Thorsby (6-0) – HIGH
3. Hale County (4-2) – LOCKED
4. Greensboro (3-3) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Thomasville (3-3)

Southside and Thorsby play this week for the region title, loser gets second.

Hale County already defeated Greensboro/Thomasville so they are locked in. Thomasville and Greensboro play this week for fourth.

1. Glenwood (6-0) – LOCKED
2. Lee-Scott (4-1) – LOCKED
3. Randolph County (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Dadeville (2-3) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Beulah (2-3)

Glenwood has locked up the region title. Lee-Scott has locked up second.

Randolph County and Beulah play this week. Dadeville has winless Childersburg and can work their way in as well since they have a win over Beulah. If Beulah wins it will lead to a 3-way tie that will go to the non-region tiebreaker which currently sits:

Randolph County – 9, potential of 19 (Woodland 2, Central Coosa 4, Ranburne 3 – potential of Woodland 4, Central Coosa 5, Ranburne 5, Hokes Bluff 5)
Beulah – 2, potential of 9 (Abbeville 2 – potential of Abbeville 3, Autauga Academy 6)
Dadeville – 0, potential of 5 (potential of Valley 5)

It’s almost a guarantee Randolph County will win this one. If that happens, Dadeville will be fourth with head-to-head over Beulah

1. Vinemont (5-1) – MEDIUM
2. Gordo (5-1) – MEDIUM
3. Winfield (5-1) – MEDIUM
4. Phil Campbell (3-3) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Oakman (3-3)

Vinemont just fell to Oakman to lead to a 3-way tie for first. Vinemont faces Winfield this week and if Vinemont wins they will be region champ. If Winfield wins, Gordo will be region champ (as long as Gordo defeats 1-5 Carbon Hill) and Winfield will be second with Vinemont third.. But there can’t be a 3-way tie, despite the fact it is one now.

Phil Campbell already defeated Oakman and Midfield, which are the only teams they could tie with. Phil Campbell plays winless Hanceville so they should be solid in fourth, but if they somehow lose, then Oakman can get in with a win over Midfield.

1. Piedmont (6-0) – MEDIUM
2. Westbrook Christian (5-1) – LOW
3. Walter Wellborn (5-1) – LOW
4. Glencoe (5-1) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: None

This region was a headache last year with a FIVE-way tie for third. It’s a 9-team region that will go to the final week this year again, although the four teams are locked in to the playoffs after this past week.

Piedmont still has to face Glencoe on October 30. Westbrook Christian still has to face Walter Wellborn.

It will become a little clearer (hopefully) after this week and we can spell out scenarios and maybe lock some teams in at that point.

1. Mars Hill (6-0) – LOCKED
2. Colbert County (5-1) – MEDIUM
3. Lauderdale County (4-2) – MEDIUM
4. Rogers (3-3) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Colbert Heights (3-3)

Mars Hill is locked in as region champ. Colbert County is locked in at #2.

Lauderdale County and Colbert Heights play this week. Rogers already defeated Colbert Heights. If Colbert Heights beats Lauderdale County (and Rogers beats 1-5 Elkmont) then there will be a 3-way tie that goes to the non-region tiebreaker that currently stands:

Lauderdale County – 9, potential of 13 (Lexington 5, Central-Florence 4 – potential of Lexington 7, Central-Florence 6)
Rogers – 3, potential of 12 (Wilson 3 – potential of Wilson 5, Lexington 7)
Colbert Heights – 1, potential of 2 (Cherokee 1 – potential of Cherokee 2)

Lauderdale County will likely win this once since it will come down really to Central-Florence (4-6) vs Wilson (3-5). If Lauderdale County does win, then they will be third and Rogers fourth. If Rogers pulls out the tiebreaker, they will be third and Colbert Heights fourth.

1. Fyffe (6-0) – HIGH
2. Geraldine (6-0) – HIGH
3. Collinsville (4-2) – MEDIUM
4. Holly Pond (3-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Whitesburg Christian (2-4)

Fyffe plays Geraldine this week for first and second.

Collinsville and Holly Pond play this week as well. Holly Pond needs to win because they lost to Whitesburg Christian already, and Whitesburg Christian plays winless Asbury so they will likely win.