(last updated 10/13/24, 11:20 am)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2024 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 3A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. TR Miller (5-0) – HIGH
2. Bayside Academy (4-0) – MEDIUM
3. Hillcrest-Evergreen (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Excel (2-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Flomaton (1-3)

TR Miller and Bayside Academy play on October 25.

Hillcrest’s only two losses are one score losses to TR Miller and Bayside Academy.

Flomaton has lost to Excel/Bayside/TR Miller but can still cause some chaos if they can beat Hillcrest this week.

1. Montgomery Academy (4-1) – LOW
2. Houston Academy (4-1) – LOW
3. Trinity (4-1) – LOW
4. Alabama Christian (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Wicksburg (3-2)

This region is crazy and still has a lot of playing out to do. Montgomery Academy is 2-1 against the four teams behind them and has the best path to winning out. MA’s one loss is to Wicksburg, so if it ever comes to a tiebreaker, Wicksburg will have an advantage over them.

Alabama Christian beat Wicksburg this past week to move into fourth, but still have to face Montgomery Academy next week. This could all still go a number of ways.

1. Thomasville (5-0) – HIGH
2. Southside-Selma (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Hale County (3-2) – LOW
4. Greensboro (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Thorsby (3-2), Dallas County (2-3)

Thomasville is looking good and only need to beat Dallas County this week to lock up the region title.

Greensboro and Thorsby play this week. If Dallas County falls to Thomasville they will be out for good. Southside and Thorsby play next week. There is still some deciding to do in this region.

1. Glenwood (5-0) – LOCKED
2. Randolph County (2-2) – LOW
3. Lee-Scott Academy (2-2) – LOW
4. Beulah (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: BB Comer (2-2), Dadeville (1-3)

Glenwood has locked up the region title, but behind them it’s a bit of a mess with everyone beating everyone. We have Beulah fourth now despite one extra win because they lost to Lee-Scott and haven’t played Randolph County. However, Randolph County beat Lee-Scott…but lost to BB Comer. Lee-Scott lost to Dadeville.

It’s a wild region that we will have to let play out. The big match-ups are Beulah/Randolph County and Lee-Scott/BB Comer next week, along with BB Comer and Dadeville this week.

1. Winfield (5-0) – HIGH
3. Gordo (4-1) – HIGH
2. Oakman (3-2) – LOW
4. Vinemont (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Phil Campbell (2-3), Midfield (2-3)

Winfield already has a win over Gordo, so they only need to beat Hanceville (1-4) this week to win the region title. Gordo only needs to beat Phil Campbell (2-3) or Carbon Hill (0-5) to lock up second.

Vinemont and Oakman play this week. There are a couple of 2-3 teams that are mathematically still alive but have a lot of work to do. Vinemont is most likely to drop since they still have Winfield, and they already lost to Phil Campbell. So if Vinemont loses out, Phil Campbell could grab that spot. If Midfield gets into a 3-way tie (which is possible), then it would go deep in the tiebreakers. We’ll see what happens with Vinemont/Oakman first.

1. Piedmont (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. Walter Wellborn (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Locust Fork (3-2) – LOW
4. JB Pennington (3-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Westbrook Christian (3-2), Weaver (2-3)

This is a nine team region so it will take until the final week of the regular season to play out. Locust Fork and Walter Wellborn play this week, then Piedmont and Walter Wellborn play on October 25. JB Pennington and Westbrook Christian also play this week.

There are still a lot of games to play out in this one but we will know more this week.

However, things are getting more complicated after Walter Wellborn lost to Ohatchee (2-4) and Locust Fork lost to Weaver this past week.

1. Mars Hill (5-0) – HIGH
2. Lauderdale County (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Rogers (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Sheffield (2-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Colbert County (2-3)

Mars Hill already has wins over Lauderdale County, Rogers and Sheffield and face Colbert Heights to lock up the region title this week.

Sheffield already defeated Colbert Heights, which is why we have them in currently. Lauderdale County plays Rogers this week and Colbert Heights (2-3) in the final week.

Because Colbert Heights already lost to Sheffield and face Mars Hill/Lauderdale County – we don’t project them making it in, although they are still alive to do so. Colbert County on the other hand only needs to beat Elkmont (1-4) and then Sheffield to get in.

1. Fyffe (5-0) – HIGH
2. Sylvania (4-1) – HIGH
3. Geraldine (4-1) – HIGH
4. Collinsville (2-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Whitesburg Christian (2-3), Holly Pond (2-3)

Fyffe has already defeated Sylvania and Collinsville with Geraldine as their region finale on October 25. Sylvania already defeated Geraldine.

Collinsville has already defeated Whitesburg Christian and plays Holly Pond next week.