(last updated 10/14/24, 2:10 pm)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2025 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 3A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Bayside Academy (4-0) – MEDIUM
2. Cottage Hill Christian (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. TR Miller (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Flomaton (2-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Hillcrest-Evergreen (2-3)

Bayside Academy and TR Miller face off the final week of region play. Cottage Hill has winless Monroe County and Flomaton left. Bayside beat them last week.

Flomaton and Hillcrest play this week for fourth.

1. Montgomery Academy (5-0) – HIGH
2. Trinity (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Wicksburg (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Houston Academy (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Trinity and Wicksburg play for second this weekend, while Montgomery Academy only needs to win one of their next two to lock up the region title.

Houston Academy already beat Alabama Christian and if they beat winless Northside Methodist, then they will be locked into fourth at worst, with a chance to beat Trinity and move up in the final week.

1. Southside-Selma (5-0) – HIGH
2. Thorsby (5-0) – HIGH
3. Hale County (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Greensboro (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Thomasville (2-3), Dallas County (2-3)

Southside and Thorsby play on October 24 for the region title. Thorsby still has to play Greensboro this week to lock up second.

Hale County already defeated Greensboro. Thomasville and Dallas County are on the outside looking in at 2-3 and can still win their way in, but it will take work.

1. Glenwood (5-0) – HIGH
2. Lee-Scott (4-0) – HIGH
3. Randolph County (2-2) – MEDIUM
4. Beulah (2-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Dadeville (1-3)

Glenwood and Lee-Scott play this weekend for the region title and the loser is guaranteed second regardless.

Randolph County and Beulah play on October 24 for third and fourth. Dadeville could jump up and cause a tiebreaker due to their win over Beulah. BB Comer already lost to both Beulah and Randolph County.

1. Vinemont (5-0) – HIGH
2. Gordo (4-1) – HIGH
3. Winfield (4-1) – HIGH
4. Phil Campbell (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Vinemont still has to beat Winfield on October 24 to win the region title. Gordo has already defeated Winfield and lost to Vinemont to put them fairly solid in third, although they have Phil Campbell this week.

Phil Campbell already beat Oakman (2-3) who is the only team that can really catch them, but Oakman has Vinemont this weekend so it will be tough.

1. Piedmont (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. Westbrook Christian (4-1) – LOW
3. Weaver (4-1) – LOW
4. Glencoe (4-1) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: JB Pennington (3-3)

This region was a headache last year with a FIVE-way tie for third. It’s a 9-team region that will go to the final week this year again.

Piedmont still has to face Weaver and Glencoe. Westbrook Christian still has to face Weaver. JB Pennington still has Westbrook Christian and Weaver.

There is a lot to determine here and it will become a little clearer (hopefully) after this week.

1. Mars Hill (5-0) – HIGH
2. Colbert County (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Lauderdale County (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Rogers (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Colbert Heights (3-2)

Mars Hill only needs to win one of it’s next two to lock up the region title.

Lauderdale County and Rogers play this week, and Lauderdale County and Colbert Heights play next week. Rogers already defeated Colbert Heights.

1. Fyffe (5-0) – HIGH
2. Geraldine (5-0) – HIGH
3. Collinsville (3-2) – MEDIUM
4. Holly Pond (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Whitesburg Christian (2-3)

Fyffe plays Geraldine on October 24. Holly Pond plays Collinsville then. Whitesburg Christian is a game behind, but beat Holly Pond, therefore has a chance to work their way in.