(last updated 10/13/24, 1:08 pm)

It’s time for ALPreps Bracketology for the 2024 season!

The boring, but important stuff:

Bracketology is something Joe Lunardi began in the 90’s as a way to predict the field of participants that would make the NCAA basketball tournament each year and where in the bracket they would be slotted.

We started this process with Alabama high school football back in 2016 and have done it every year since. We thought it would be a great way to help schools and the people involved with a team have some knowledge on who and where they may be playing in the playoffs, or if they will even make it at all.

Before we begin, a few things to note when reading the info below:

– This is all based on a few factors: A) Region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) our own opinion. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– The numbers next to a team on the bracket represent their region and seed. So if a team has “3-2” next to their name, it’s not a record, it means they are the second seed out of region 3.

– Just because a team isn’t listed, doesn’t necessarily mean they are mathematically eliminated. They very well may be officially eliminated or our projections just don’t show them as having a high probability of making the playoffs.

– And most importantly, all of this is unofficial. The AHSAA determines the bracket and various factors may change our projections when the official bracket is released. This is simply a tool to help show what could be possible.

Here is the ALPreps bracketology for Class 1A as of right now:

Confidence

LOCKED = Locked into that position no matter what
HIGH = High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now
MEDIUM = Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them
LOW = May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot as things could drastically change with just one or two results

(records are region records only)

1. Leroy (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. Southern Choctaw (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Sweet Water (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Millry (4-1) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

These four teams are locked into the playoffs, just have to determine the order which can go all kinds of ways.

Sweet Water has already defeated Millry and Millry/Southern Choctaw play this week. Leroy/Millry and Sweet Water/Southern Choctaw play next week.

1. McKenzie (4-1) – LOW
2. Elba (4-1) – LOW
3. Georgiana (4-1) – LOW
4. Florala (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Brantley (3-2)

McKenzie beat Elba who beat Brantley who beat Georgiana who beat McKenzie. Now Florala has defeated Brantley.

Yep, looks like it’s going to be one of those regions. We can’t accurately project anyone at the top, so take these rankings with a grain of salt. McKenzie has the better overall record right now so we ranked them this way. It can literally change to be anything, but likely not until this week’s games so we will reassess after that.

1. Linden (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. University Charter (4-0) – MEDIUM
3. Choctaw County (2-2) – MEDIUM
4. Pickens Academy (1-3) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Holy Spirit (2-3)

Linden and University Charter don’t play until October 25.

The records look off, but Pickens Academy beat Holy Spirit. Despite their record being worse, we are projecting a win out over RC Hatch (1-3) and Francis Marion (0-4) to put them in the playoffs in fourth. Holy Spirit’s final game is against Choctaw County this week. If Holy Spirit wins that game, it could then cause a three-way tie.

1. Maplesville (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. Autauga Academy (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Verbena (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Keith (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Billingsley (2-3)

Maplesville still has Keith this week and Verbena next week to win the region. Autauga Academy is looking strong for second with two games against the bottom two teams in the region. Verbena already has wins over Keith/Billingsley so they will finish no lower than third as long as they beat Autaugaville (1-4) this week.

Billingsley and Keith play on October 25 in what will likely be for fourth.

1. Lynn (5-0) – MEDIUM
2. Berry Fayette (4-1) – MEDIUM
3. Hubbertville (4-1) – MEDIUM
4. Pickens County (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Marion County (2-3)

Lynn still has Hubbertville this week. Berry beat Hubbertville early in the season to give them second.

Marion County and Pickens County face off against each other on October 25 for fourth..

1. Wadley (4-0) – HIGH
2. Winterboro (4-0) – HIGH
3. Victory Christian (2-2) – MEDIUM
4. Donoho (1-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: Woodland (0-3)

Wadley and Winterboro play for first next week after a bye for both teams with the loser guaranteed second.

Victory Christian and Donoho play this week for third. If Donoho loses, then they will face Woodland for the final playoff spot next week. If Donoho wins over Victory Christian, then Woodland can cause a 3-way tie if they win out over Fayetteville (0-4) and Donoho.

1. Hackleburg (5-0) – HIGH
3. Meek (4-1) – MEDIUM
2. Addison (3-2) – LOW
4. Cherokee (3-2) – LOW

Others that could grab a spot: Vina (3-2)

Hackleburg only needs to beat Shoals Christian (1-4) this week to win the region title.

This could still go a number of ways behind them.

Cherokee/Meek and Addison/Vina are this week and we’ll know more about various scenarios after that.

1. Spring Garden (5-0) – LOCKED
2. Appalachian (3-1) – MEDIUM
3. Ragland (2-2) – MEDIUM
4. Valley Head (3-2) – MEDIUM

Others that could grab a spot: None

Spring Garden has locked up the region title.

Appalachian defeated Ragland this past week. Valley Head and Woodville face off this week for fourth. Ragland has already defeated Valley Head which is why they are ahead for now despite a worse record.

Appalachian still has Valley Head and Woodville (1-3) on their schedule as well to potentially cause some chaos.

There is a chance for Woodville and Gaylesville (1-3) to cause chaos this week and then face each other next week, but we project the teams as seen above.